Janusz Bugajski: TRUMP’S WAR WITH IRAN

Most US Presidentshave conducted a major war by which they are remembered. It was Kuwait for George Bush senior, Kosova for Bill Clinton, and Iraq for George Bush junior. And despite his vocal opposition to foreign entanglements, it now looks like Trump’s warmay be with Iran.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran are escalating. The US has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the regionand a bomber squadron with plans to send additional forces. This is in evident response to an intelligence report indicating that the Iranian regime has given its proxies a green light to attack UScitizens and assets in the region.The burning question now is whether Washington will take pre-emptive military action.

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump criticized US involvement in foreign wars, claiming that they were not in America’s national interest. In particular, he vigorously attacked President George W. Bush for the decision to invade Iraq. On the other hand, Trump does not want to appear weak and helpless on the international stage, as this is exactly how he depicted President Barack Obama.

Trump appointed John Bolton, a leading neo-conservative, as his National Security Advisor.Bolton and otheranti-Iran hawks at the National Security Council have been pushing for military engagement. Before his appointment, Bolton openly advocated for regime change in Tehran and his hard stance has alienated many of Trump’s other advisers both inside and outside the administration, even including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Bolton and his allies have built up a case against Tehran – accusing it of assisting al Qaeda, designated an arm of the Iranian military as a terrorist organization, and claiming Iran is linked to a terrorist threat against the US embassy in Baghdad, Iraq.Bolton’s critics contend that attempts to link Iran’s Shia regime to terrorism carried out by Sunni groups is disinformation. And even the UK, America’s closest ally, is distancing itself from the White House. A senior British general in the coalition fighting ISIS recently asserted that there is no enhanced threat from Iran in Iraq or Syria.

In appealing to Trump’s ego in the dispute with Tehran, Bolton opposesUS congressional oversight over the President in waging war and is counting on anti-Iranian hawks in the Senate to support him. By establishing links between al Qaeda and Iran and casting Iran as a terrorist threat to America, the Presidenthas sufficient justification to fight Iran without congressional approval under the still-in-effect 2001 use-of-force resolution.

The 2001 authorization for the use of military force gives the White House the power to use military forces against “nations, organizations, or persons” that the President determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or “harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the US.”

In its escalating anti-Iranian campaign, the White House has imposed tough economic sanctions, targeting Tehran’s export revenues, and pulled out of a deal to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, claiming that the agreement benefits Tehran.Trump is also encouragedby Saudi Arabia, whose rulers seek to use the US to promotetheir regional dominance. The Trump family’s close financial and personal ties with the Saudi monarchyare well known. Trump is also spurred on by the rightist government in Israel, which sees a clerical Iran as an existential threat to Israel.

But even while thedrumsof war are getting louder, there are reports that Trump has become irritated by the impression that Bolton is directing foreign policy toward Iran. To counter this perception, Trump is also claiming that he wants to initiate bilateral talks with Tehran just as he did with North Korea. Despite his bluster about “ending Iran” if it threatens the US, Trump understands that such a war could prove more bloody and prolonged than the one in Iraq,which he has vehemently criticized.

Ultimately, Iran is both strategically and demographically the most important state in the Middle East. A war with Iran could quickly turn into a regional conflagration involving Americans, Iranians, Arabs, Turks, and Russians. Trump may pull back from the brink as he seeks re-election on the promise of keeping America out of foreign wars. But given his unpredictability and volatility he could also spark a war almost overnight.