Serbia 2024: Between a ‘special war’ and ‘global launch’

 The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly conducts analyses of events spanning the Middle East, the Balkans, and global affairs. IFIMES Analyses the Current Situation in the Republic of Serbia amid attempts to destabilise the country. We present the key insights from the analysis “Serbia 2024: Between a ‘special war’ and ‘global ‘launch’”.

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Over the past decade, the Republic of Serbia has made significant strides in its socio-economic and political development. It has successfully (re)positioned itself on the regional and international political stage. However, the unresolved dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina remains a substantial burden on Serbia’s ambitious economic development projects. Due to its refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, Serbia has faced considerable pressure, which it has largely managed to mitigate through its pragmatic stance towards Ukraine. In addition to the war in Ukraine, the developments in Gaza are also having a profound global impact, and Serbia is not immune to these effects. Moreover, Serbia’s policy of military neutrality comes at a considerable cost. Nonetheless, the rise in its investment rating, economic growth, and a budget deficit below three per cent provide optimism for the country’s economic prospects.

The visits of some of the world’s most prominent leaders affirm Serbia’s pivotal position in the Western Balkans. In recent months, Serbia has hosted key figures such as Chinese President Xi Jinping, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and French President Emmanuel Macron. The recent visit by CIA Director William Burns adds to this high-profile list. In essence, no outstanding issue in the Western Balkans can be resolved without Serbia’s participation.Furthermore, the recent visit by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to Egypt should also be included in the list of notable diplomatic engagements. Egyptian-Serbian political relations have seen a revival in recent years, particularly since Vučić became Serbia’s 11th prime minister in 2014, coinciding with the rise to power of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt in the same year.

In the latest development in bilateral relations, President El-Sisi visited Serbia on July 21, 2022. This was a historic occasion, marking the first visit by an Egyptian president to Serbia in the past 35 years. During this visit, President El-Sisi was awarded the Order of the Republic of Serbia, a clear indicator of the depth of the relations between the two countries.

Analysts believe that the strong ties between Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Chinese President Xi Jinping could further advance the much-needed dialogue between the EU and China, a point emphasized by French President Macron, who stated that “EU-China dialogue is more necessary than ever.” It is crucial for Serbia to continue pursuing a balanced policy towards key international players.

In a competitive bid against the United States, Thailand, Spain, and Argentina, Serbia emerged victorious after four rounds of voting and has been awarded the organization of the specialized international exhibition EXPO 2027. This event is set to revitalize Serbia and its capital, Belgrade, which is accelerating the process of “metropolization” under the leadership of the new/old mayor, Aleksandar Šapić.The investment in EXPO 2027, totalling €17.8 billion, will be allocated to developing new municipal and road infrastructure, constructing new bridges, and renovating facades, among other projects. Belgrade will undergo a complete transformation of its railway and bus stations and will be connected to the airport, the exhibition centre, and a new stadium.

Projections indicate that the 21st century will be a time of developmental opportunities and prosperity for Serbia. Historically, whenever Serbia has made rapid progress, there have been attempts to slow or even halt this advancement. Serbia has successfully repositioned and rebranded itself in both regional and international relations, evolving from an object to a subject of international affairs. This shift is most evident in the dialogue on normalizing relations between official Belgrade and Pristina, where Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has successfully imposed the paradigm that “they cannot get everything while we get nothing.” The Non-Aligned Movement Summit, held in October 2021 to mark its 60th anniversary, was a tremendous achievement for Serbia’s foreign policy. Additionally, hosting EXPO 2027—the world’s largest international exhibition—further affirms Serbia’s global standing and influence. These accomplishments highlight the increasing importance of Serbia’s future EU membership, which will open new avenues for unprecedented development and prosperity.

EXPO 2027, popularly referred to as the “Economic Olympics,” is a significant event and a boost for Serbia and the region. It aligns with Aleksandar Vučić’s vision of achieving a GDP of €100 billion by 2027, a substantial increase from the modest €25 billion GDP recorded before the Serbian Progressive Party (Srpska napredna stranka – SNS) assumed power in 2012.

In 2023, Serbia secured over €4.5 billion in foreign investments, surpassing all other Western Balkan countries combined. By July 2024, it reached record foreign exchange reserves of €27.5 billion. Negotiations are underway for investments in approximately 100 development projects, valued at around €10 billion, which are expected to create over 40,000 new jobs. Serbia’s trade with the EU amounted to €39.7 billion in 2023. The discovery of significant deposits of gold, lithium, and other metals positions Serbia among the promising nations poised for significant economic growth and comprehensive societal development. As of June 2024, Serbia’s public debt stood at €38.18 billion, representing 50% of its gross domestic product (GDP) and well below the Maastricht criteria, where the EU average is around 90%.Serbia faces two major developmental challenges: 1) building nuclear power plants to ensure future energy stability, and 2) exploiting lithium and other minerals to secure development and, consequently, well-being and prosperity. The discovery of lithium in the Jadar River area (Western Serbia), led by Rio Tinto company, has raised numerous questions, both warranted and otherwise. Additionally, Serbia is traversed by two of Europe’s largest rivers, the Sava and the Danube.

For the successful implementation of major development projects, achieving social consensus is crucial, as these initiatives impact all citizens of a country. Both the government and the opposition in Serbia have not demonstrated sufficient responsibility regarding such development projects. Rather than fostering debate and discussion within society on these issues, there has been internal tension, polarization, and protests, which have had political and international implications.

It is entirely understandable that citizens living in areas with lithium deposits seek answers to numerous questions about the project, especially concerning its environmental impacts. Effectively addressing these concerns requires a calm atmosphere, genuine dialogue, and the presentation of expert factual information.

Research indicates that Serbia holds substantial deposits of various ores and minerals, prompting discussions on their exploitation, which could drive unprecedented development for the country. If high environmental standards are upheld, the Jadar mine could become the world’s first lithium operation without a liquid tailings facility, which, according to experts, could also reduce its overall size.Experts believe that, if properly managed, the exploitation of lithium and other minerals could represent a “global launch” for Serbia, similar to how the discovery of oil in the early 20th century “launched” Arab nations onto the global stage and positively impacted their lives and economies. Hence, it is essential to establish an Independent Oversight Committee for the “Jadar” project, comprising representatives from the local community, civil society, the expert community, the government, and the investors. This model could also be applied to the construction of future nuclear power plants in Serbia. This presents a historic opportunity for Serbia to become a modern and developed European nation.

The implementation of the ETIAS system[2] means that citizens from any Western Balkan country will need to complete a special application form and obtain approval before entering the EU. This effectively introduces a new electronic quasi-visa regime, in contrast to the current visa-free travel enjoyed by Western Balkan citizens. This move nullifies the candidate status of these countries, as their citizens will face the same entry requirements as travellers from third countries. Instead of implementing ETIAS, the EU should suspend its introduction for Western Balkan countries and decide to expedite their block accession. The Western Balkans region, with a population of 16 million—slightly more than one-third of Poland’s population—cannot jeopardize the integration of the EU’s total population of 450 million.ETIAS represents yet another strategic error by the EU regarding the Western Balkans, driven by the myopia of Brussels officials who devise such measures, the ignorance of leading European politicians who show little interest in enlargement, and the condescending, often humiliating attitude often displayed towards the region. Meanwhile, Russia and China closely observe these developments, responding with calculated and sometimes aggressive actions. Although ETIAS was initially slated for introduction in 2022, its phased implementation has been postponed to November 10, 2024, with full implementation now expected by mid-2025. It is essential to suspend its introduction once again, as otherwise, it would amount to a form of “reward” from the EU to Serbia and the Western Balkans.

ETIAS will assist EU member states in “better assessing potential risks” when travellers cross borders. If any issues arise during the data verification process or if there are discrepancies between the application responses and information from security databases, the request for entry into the EU may be denied, or additional information may be required. The application will need to include details of all criminal convictions, past travels to war or conflict zones, and whether the applicant has recently been subject to decisions requiring them to leave the territory of any country. For citizens of the Western Balkans, certain security-related questions in the ETIAS application and the Schengen zone, particularly regarding involvement in armed conflicts, genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, investigations, or prosecutions, may present challenges. The applicant will be required to declare that the information provided is accurate. They must also confirm that they understand the conditions for entering European countries that require ETIAS and that they may be asked to provide supporting documents each time they cross an external border. The stated goal is to prevent international crime and terrorism.

Experts caution that border crossing wait times may increase, as the current average time for processing passenger data is 45 seconds, but with the implementation of the EES[3], this could extend to two minutes. The system is expected to raise the level of security checks for travellers entering the EU without visas.

The “Growth Plan” package holds significant importance, as it can assist Western Balkan countries in creating new jobs, stimulating economic growth, and investing in projects that align with EU priorities, such as clean energy and the development of small, medium, and large enterprises. The additional six billion euros for Western Balkan countries is allocated for the period from 2024 to 2027, coinciding with the current EU multi-annual financial framework. The European Parliament has emphasized that this package is distinct and not part of the EU’s pre-accession instruments (IPA), which are the regular EU funds for countries in the enlargement process. The “Growth Plan” is by no means a substitute for full EU membership nor an excuse to delay that membership.Analysts suggest that the latest tendencies within the EU indicate that the path of Western Balkan countries toward EU membership now runs through Kyiv and Ukraine, which is seen as degrading for the Western Balkan countries, pushing them further from the EU and into the embrace of Russia, China, and other spheres of influence. This highlights the rationale behind Serbia’s foreign policy, which is built on four pillars: the EU, the U.S., Russia, and China, along with the Non-Aligned Movement. In this context, the EU pillar would prove completely unreliable. As Serbian President Vučić remarked, EU membership must not remain a mere “fairy tale on paper.”

Serbia is deeply involved in international affairs and keeps pace with global trends. Aware that power is shifting from the West to the East, it is responding by cultivating balanced relationships not only with the EU and the U.S. but also with Russia, China, and the member states of the Non-Aligned Movement, which hold significant influence in the UN General Assembly—crucial for Serbia in its efforts to block Kosovo’s UN membership. The likelihood of EU enlargement to the Western Balkans is becoming more uncertain, and public support for Serbia’s EU membership has been steadily decreasing, now standing at a modest 40%.The International Institute IFIMES has previously indicated in its analyses that pressure on Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić would intensify. There is a concerted effort to oust Vučić and destabilize Serbia, involving forces from the region, elements of the international community, and, of course, individuals and organizations from within Serbia. Each player in the effort to remove Vučić is contributing according to their capabilities. Significant financial resources have been invested in the campaign to unseat Vučić, which must be justified. It is also important to consider that Serbia is a battleground for the activities of over 100 different intelligence and security agencies.

Analysts suggest that a “special war” is being waged against Serbia with the ultimate goal of removing Aleksandar Vučić from power through undemocratic means, despite Serbia being at the peak of its economic development. Therefore, the “Jadar” project should not be leveraged as a tool in this “special war” against Serbia.For the sake of regional and European peace and stability, it is essential that Serbia continues to serve as a “pillar of stability.” At the same time, Serbia must pay closer attention to and focus on certain ”friendly” countries that are participating in this “special war“”against it.

Ljubljana/Washington/Brussels/Belgrade/Pristina, 12 September 2024.