BERLIN SUMMIT: MORE SYMBOL THAN SUBSTANCE

Janusz Bugajski 

The Berlin Summit on the Western Balkans delivered more symbols than substance, even though symbolism is also important in international politics. The fact that both Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron met with all Western Balkan leaders was intended to demonstrate renewed EU commitments to the region.However, the lack of concrete decisions is likely to generate more cynicism about the results of the Summit and also about future meetings.

Traditionally, major international summits have been held when agreements have already been reached between heads of state and the meeting simply enables important protocols to be followed and accords signed. In the case of the West Balkan summits, a process launched by Berlin in 2014 to boost regional cooperation and security, few if any accords are arranged in advance. As a result, expectations rise that the session itself will produce concrete results, and this in turn can generate disappointments.

Berlin can boast at least one symbolic Summit achievement. The presence of both the German and French leaders underscored that Paris is now a major stakeholder in Berlin’s Western Balkan process. It was also a useful forum for Macron and Merkel to display a united front after recent strains in their relations over the future of the EU and the contours of Europe’s economic policy.

Nonetheless, the Summit’s shortcomings were more glaring. Although Serbia and Kosova agreed to restart“constructive” talks,there is little optimism of a major break through this year to normalize relations. Kosova’s President Hashim Thaci correctly pointed out that no final bilateral agreement could be reached without the participation of the United States because the EU is too weak and divided to resolve problems or to implement solutions in the Western Balkans.

Although Germany and France will be pushing Serbia and Kosova to pursue dialogue, the next meeting of negotiators will only be held in Paris in early July.Berlin also failed to resolve the tariff dispute following Prishtina’s decision last November to impose 100% tariffs on Serbian goods in retaliation for Belgrade lobbying against Kosova’s membership of Interpol. Kosova’s officials insist that tariffs will only be revoked if Belgrade recognizes the country’s independence.

For its part, Berlin sent a strong message against any land exchanges between the two protagonists. This seemed to counter some of the signals that Washington has been sending in recent months. Although one can only speculate about all the private dinner conversations, rumors soon spread that adamant messages were delivered behind closed doors that there can be no border changes in the region and multi-ethnicity must be defended throughout the Western Balkans.

In anothers tark Summit failure, North Macedonia’s EU aspirations made little progress despite the landmark agreement between Skopje and Athens that is widely praised in the EU. Skopje did not receive a clear signal from France, which remains skeptical about EU enlargement in the Balkans, on a date for opening Union accession talks. Merkel seemed to sum up the low expectations and meager symbolic results when she concluded that the Summit was not about making decisions but about “having an honest and joint conversation.”

For Albania, there was little of real value at the Berlin Summit. Merkel and Macron made it abundantly clear that there is little immediate prospect for any Western Balkan aspirants to join the EU unless they complete wide-ranging reforms especially with regard to the rule of law. Albania’s ongoing political instability and public protests certainly do not help the country in activating its membership bid. Tirana is unlikely to obtain the go-ahead to formally start accession talks this year.

A more wide ranging sixth annual Berlin Process Summit will be held in Poznań, Poland on 4-5 July. It is scheduled to be attended by prime ministers, foreign ministers, and ministers of economy from the six Balkan EU aspirants, two current EU member states (Croatia and Slovenia), and several other EU members, including Austria, France, Germany, and Italy, as well as representatives from international financial institutions.

The Poznan agenda looks ambitious and includes discussions on economic investment, inter-state connectivity, youth and cultural ties, the development of civil society, and regional security. But oftentimes too broad an agenda is itself self-defeating, as each item may only receive shallow treatment. Above all, there will be much skepticism whether at the next Western Balkan Summit substance will actually prevail over symbolism.