Janusz Bugajski: IS ANKARA DESTABILIZING THE BALKANS?

Turkey’s growing influence in the Balkans has heightened fears that the Erdogan government is contributing to destabilizing the region. Initially viewed as a valuable complement to the EU and US, especially among Muslim populations, Turkey’s political and cultural involvementis now viewed with suspicion particularly as Turkish-American relations are deteriorating.

Since the collapse of Yugoslavia, Ankara has extended its influences across the Balkans through trade, investment, cultural exchanges, humanitarian assistance, and religious contacts. Most countries welcomed Turkey’s involvement and viewed the country as a developing economy and a trusted NATO member. However, with Turkey excluded by the EU and its democratic system regressing, Ankara is now perceived as being overly intrusive in Balkan politics.

President Erdogan continues to apply pressure on the region’s governments in demanding the extradition to Turkey of adherents of Fethullah Gulen – an ostracized Turkish cleric living in exile in the US since 1999. Erdogan claims that Gulenists organized the coup attempt in Turkey in July 2016 and accuses the movement of being the main danger to the state. Unable to convince Washington to extradite Gulen himself, Ankara has focused on Gulenist supporters in Europe, particularly in the Balkans.

In Kosova in March 2018, Turkish agents arranged the expulsion of six Turkish citizens allegedly linked with Gulen. Kosova’s Prime Minister subsequently fired the Interior Minister and the head of Kosova’s Intelligence Agencybut the damage was already done. Ankara demonstrated that it could act with impunity under the noses of the US and the EU.

Erdogan also implied that Washington was behind Prishtina’s reluctance to extradite “terrorists” and that Kosova was simply America’s pawn. But attempts to turn Albanians against the US could actually turnthem against Turkey. Complaintsare escalating about Turkish imperial “big brother” syndrome toward Muslims similar to Russia’s arrogance with Slavic Christian Orthodox populations.

Turkey’s President portrays himself as a protector of Muslims in former Ottoman dominions. He uses this image in domestic politics, as millions of Turkishcitizens have Bosnian or Albanian backgrounds. Pro-Turkish propaganda in the region involves art shows, exhibitions, religious ceremonies, marches,sport competitions, and other public events organized by Turkish embassies together withNGOs and lobbying groups funded by Ankara. However, the extent of Turkey’s political impact in the region varies.

In North Macedonia and Bulgaria, Ankara has supported pro-Turkey parties and civil society organizations among local Turks and other Muslims and has enlisted people who are loyal to Erdogan. These bodies have influence at local level where there are sizeable Turkish populations and when they enter government coalitions.

Kosova and Albania are largely immune to pan-Turkism or pan-Islamism and Turkey is important only as far as its policies are in harmony with NATO and the EU, which both countries seek to enter. Turkey is not a political role model for these secular Muslim societies.Nonetheless, the indefinite exclusion of any country from the EU will provide Ankara with opportunities to deepen its influences.

There are two populations that may be more susceptible to Ankara’s interventions – the Bosniak Muslims and the Sandzak Muslims. In his July visit to Bosnia, Erdogan urged the authorities in Sarajevo to extradite all Gulen followers and close Gulen funded schools. With increasing Turkish pressure on Bosnia, intra-Muslim disputes could escalate. This would assist the separatist agenda of leaders of the Serbian entity who contend that Bosnia is an unstable and failing state.

The Sandzak region along the Serbia-Montenegro border is where Turkey claims the most significant influence. The region was created by the Ottomans in order to separate Serbia and Montenegro and to connect the Ottoman Empire with Bosnia. The loyalty of Sandzak Muslimstoward Turkey stems from close historical and cultural links. Nearlyfive million Bosniaks are estimated tolive in Turkey, many of whom originate from the Sandzak.

Since the wars in the 1990s, Turkey’s moderate Islam has been viewed as a valuable counterpoint to radical Salafist penetration from Saudi Arabia. However, Ankara’sfocus on Muslim identity combined with growing Turkish skepticism toward the West may contribute to intensifying intra-Balkan disputes.

At the same time, Turkey’s policies may accelerate Moscow’s plan to disrupt the region. Ankara’s just completed purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system is widely viewed as a betrayal of NATO that assists Putin’s offensive against Europe and America. Washington is now considering imposing sanctions on Turkey and this too will have negative reverberations in the Balkans.