Janusz Bugajski: US ELECTION CAMPAIGN BEGINS

The US presidential election campaignis already underway. In a few days time, Democratic Party candidates will hold a major national debate designed to challenge Donald Trump for the White House. In the coming months, a handful of Democrat contenders will emerge to compete in the election primaries in early 2020.

Democratic primaries in all fifty states will decide who will be the party’s presidential choice for November 2020. The debates help to eliminate weaker candidates and define the choices facing voters.At present, the Democrats have over twenty contenders but most will drop outif their popularity remains in single digits and they cannot raise the funds necessary to sustain a national campaign.

For the Republicans it seems highly unlikely that Trump will face any primary competition. The President benefits from enormous popularity in the Republican party, even while the party itself has shrunk because those opposing Trump have abandoned it or prefer not to vote.

The Democratic Party is now sharply divided into two main camps– progressive and moderate – and the only thing that may hold them together is an eagerness to displace Trump.The “progressive” stream has pushed a large part of the party base toward the left and adopted policy prescriptions that favor a bigger government and a more redistributive economic agenda. Some even define themselves as socialist. They are challenging the Democratic old guard who they claim are out of touch with young voters.

For the Democrats to win office they will have to accomplish two objectives. First, they need to expand turnout on election day among apathetic citizens, many of whom simply did not show up to cast ballots for Hilary Clinton in November 2016. Second, they will have to convince independents, moderates, and centrists that the Democrat candidate is not a leftist populist.Polling and electoral analysis demonstrate that a very liberal or progressive candidate is less electable at a national level than a centrist.

Three of the four top Democraticcandidates — SenatorKamala Harris of California, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, are far more liberal than recent Democratic presidential nominees. Joe Biden holds the torch for the moderate centrist wing of the party and has the best chance of beating Trump.

On the President’s side, most opinion polls indicate that Trump’s national approval rating among voters has not crossed 45%, while his disapproval rating remains over 50%. But despite these figures he could still win a second term.

Trump’s strategy consists of two main elements – to regain and even increase the turnout among his core supporters, and to discredit the Democratic candidate. To achieve a higher turnout, he needs to reignite his nationalist populism and pinpoint the enemies that he is fighting for on behalf of ordinary citizens. One can expect a campaign of hardline immigration policies, xenophobic resentment, and constant attacks on the ”establishment swamp” in Washington where Trump still depicts himself as the outsider.

Trump may not increase his own approval ratings but he can increase disapproval for the Democrats as he did in 2016 with the help of digital social networks and systematic disinformation. He will attack the Democratic candidate as weak, radical, liberal, and anti-American.He will also seek to deepen divisions among Democrats or to paint the entire Party as socialists who want to flood the country with illegal immigrants.

Trump has already launched a campaign against four non-white “progressive” congresswomen who have vehemently attacked his policies. Polls find that whites without a college degree,who can be easily manipulated on questions of ethnicity and religion,make up a core Trump constituency.

Trump will face an uphill struggle during the campaign. In particular, he risks raising turnout among nonwhite voters who stayed at home in 2016. This could push some states in the south west with large Latino and African American populations, including Arizona and Texas, into the Democratic camp. Moreover, Trump is likely to manufacture new scandals that may turn the large independent bloc of voters against him.

Nonetheless, Trump’s demise cannot be taken for granted. He lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the electoral college because he gained narrow majorities in three states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Democrats must focus on regaining these states but they need a consistent and positive message that motivates voters and not simply an anti-Trump platform.